Is Population Collapse Real?

Sanaa Agarwal - Jamnabai Narsee International School

Abstract:

Demographics are critical in understanding the economic and political state of the country. Over the last few decades, demographics have usually been seen as existing in two cases - population collapse and overpopulation; each having its ramifications and problems. This paper will dissect the nature of the two contrasting issues in specific countries and further address policies to balance the lingering problem.

Introduction:

Demographics is a population-based study that determines the population structure within a country. The study is based on age, race, and sex. It contributes to a country's socio-economic information that is statistically expressed through employment, education, income, death, birth rates, etc.

Demographic statistics are important to determine a country's societal, economic, political, and social distribution. Based on such statistics countries make decisions influencing the financial market and the nation's future. The demographic indicators can further determine a clear causation between variables, possibly helping with policy recommendations.

Furthermore, before enacting legislation, it's critical to understand your country's demographic composition. Different countries may have varied structures. The greatest threat or benefit to one country may be population collapse, whereas overpopulation may be the greatest benefit or threat to another. Both the threat of population collapse and the threat of overpopulation may materialize. Whether overpopulation or population collapse poses a greater threat to a nation and humankind is a topic of much discussion. Elon Musk asserts that "the biggest threat to mankind is population collapse," even beyond the effects of global warming. However, waging a debate without considering the nation's topography and population density can be misleading.

Overpopulation:

By definition, overpopulation means a state where the human population rises to an extent exceeding the carrying capacity of an ecological setting. Overpopulation happens when the replacement rate and total fertility rates are high and usually above the average of 2.1. As seen in Figure 1, the most densely populated cities have been marked. These comprise India, China, and nations in Africa. Their culture and standard of living contribute to the densely packed cities.

Overpopulation is usually regarded as an issue since scarcity threatens sustainable growth within a country. However, some countries' economic growth is based on labor-intensive capital. We will look further into overpopulation's ramifications on countries by studying India

Case Study 1: India

As seen in the table ( figure 1), in the last 80 years the population of India has increased in 2024, India became the most populated country; However, India's population growth rate is decreasing. This indicates that the fertility rate(number of children a woman would potentially have) decreases from 5.91 in 1955 to 1.98 in 2024. Moreover, the median age has increased from 19.7 in 1955 to 28.6 in 2024. Better living standards and education levels have contributed to the decline in population growth. This shows the demographic transition of India as it moves towards an aging population.

The demographic transition occurs when a country's population size and character change due to socio-economic growth, improved healthcare, and access to family planning. India is in the third stage of demographic transition, with a dropping birth rate and a significant cohort of young people entering the reproductive age, therefore the population of India will keep increasing regardless of the decrease in growth rate. Additionally, as India enters the aging population the population moves further away from the working age of 18-59.

Furthermore, urban density and population have increased showcasing a shift from rural to urban spaces- possibly indicating a shift in employment structures. The shift could highlight the disparities and inequalities. Even though India is the 5th largest economy in the world, its GDP per capita is about 2000$ highlighting the income disparities within the country. To give another statistical example, Inequality in India skyrockets, with the income and wealth share of the top one percent of the population rising to 22.6% and 40.1%, respectively, in 2022-23.

Additionally, rural communities are facilitated with fewer healthcare and education promises than urban cities. For instance, the estimated TFRs(Total Fertility Rate) fluctuated below 1.5 children per woman in urban areas compared to above 1.8 in rural areas. According to the conclusions made above, the fertility rate is colinear with education prospects concluding the disparity in services within regions in India.

It is also critical to predict India's future demographic to implement policies for a sustainable city. India's future demographic forecast according to World Meters is shown below:

Even though the growth rate and fertility rate will significantly keep decreasing- a sign of population decline-, the overall population still increases, contributing to the existing overpopulation problem; these could have favorable and damaging implications for the country's economy. Recently, Infosys co-founder, Narayana Murthy stated, “Since the Emergency, we Indians have not paid enough attention to population control.” This could result in the worsening of the state of India.

A Big Population? Boon or Bane:

India's large population provides many opportunities for businesses to capitalize on the vast consumer base. The only reason for India's high Gross domestic project, ranking 5th, is India’s large consumer base, putting India at a comparative advantage over other nations. However, the instability to control the population has its possible implications:

[1] Economically, the growing population demands the establishment of enough job opportunities to support the expanding workforce. According to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy, unemployment in India has reached an all-time high of 8.5 percent. [2] Poverty also becomes a pressing issue. With nearly 16.5% of the population living in poverty and about 4.2 percent living in severe poverty. Due to this wealth inequality significantly rises. Over the last 4 decades, the top 10 percent possesses more than 60 percent of the total wealth. Addressing wealth inequality will also become more strenuous as the population rises, due to a star in resources. [3] It is also critical to look at the various resources available: the demand for infrastructure like housing and transport will increase, necessitating significant investments to satisfy the needs of the growing number of people. It also becomes more difficult to assist financially less fortunate people. Rapid urbanization causes urban overcrowding and poor urban planning, resulting in issues like slums, traffic congestion, and a lack of access to essential utilities. [4] India will have to facilitate resources equally to improve healthcare and education systems within the country. Due to a rise in population, this will become difficult and can cause further socio-economic problems. A decrease in literacy rates will have a decrease in the amount of skilled workers again posing a problem for the well-being of the country. [5] Population increase places immense pressure on natural resources, resulting in overconsumption, deforestation, water scarcity, and pollution. According to the Global Carbon Budget Report 2022, India's coal, oil, and gas emissions are expected to increase by 6%. Population expansion drives global warming and the production of greenhouse gasses.

Together these problems have to be dealt with and considered when thinking about the ideal population of India.

Population Collapse:

Population decline, also known as depopulation, is a decrease in the size of a human population. This means global fertility rates are declining and replacement rates are low. By 2050, more than three-quarters of countries are expected to have fertility rates that are too low to maintain their population size, and by 2100, that number could increase to 97%. All countries- including India, where overpopulation is a major issue-are susceptible to population collapse.

In theory, Malthusian, an English demographer and economist proposed that natural population growth would inevitably outpace agricultural output, ultimately resulting in famine and other catastrophes until the population was reduced below a sustainable level. But is population collapse necessarily a sustainable idea or does it have ramifications in itself is of much debate. To further look into this theory, we can study Greece, where population decline has already occurred.

Case Study 2: Greece

As seen in the table ( figure 2), in the last 80 years the population of Greece has stagnantly decreased since 2010. This indicates that the fertility rate(number of children a woman would potentially have) decreases from 2.42 in 1955 to 1.34 in 2024. Moreover, the median age has increased from 26.0 in 1955 to 46.3 in 2024. Greece has an aging population, with a significant proportion of its citizens over 65, putting pressure on the working-age population to support the elderly. This demographic shift is expected to worsen in the coming decades. The reason for such factors is attributed to the Financial crisis: The debt crisis and austerity measures(public spending cuts, tax reforms) that followed led to financial insecurity and emigration. Many young people left Greece for better opportunities elsewhere. The debt crisis and austerity measures also led to changed attitudes among the young. Many young Greeks who stayed decided against having children for financial reasons.

These primary statistics show that Greece has entered a state of population decline, much before any country. This has resulted in citizens shifting to urban cities like Athens. Rural regions in Greece often experience higher levels of poverty, lower educational attainment, and poorer health outcomes.

Many of Greece’s islands, particularly those less frequented by tourism, face economic hardships, with limited access to healthcare, education, and employment opportunities. Thus, there is a stark contrast between urban and rural areas in opportunities, infrastructure, and access to services. The statistics also show that citizens are leaving the country with the prospect of finding better financial circumstances.

The Greek government began austerity measures in 2010, in response to the global monetary crisis that started in 2008. These measures led to cuts in public healthcare funding, resulting in reduced access to services, longer waiting times, and shortages of medical supplies in public hospitals. Rural and remote areas are particularly affected by limited access to healthcare facilities. Public spending was slashed by 32% across sectors, with public health expenditure falling by nearly 43% between 2009 and 2017.

It is also critical to predict Greece’s future demographic to implement policies for a sustainable city. Greece's future demographic forecast according to World Meters is shown below:

We can see the population decline will keep occurring in Greece, even though the yearly % change will become better. Greece will have to implement better financial and public policies to prevent an out lash of these circumstances again.

A Declining Population? Boon or Bane:

A smaller population usually means a more efficient allocation of resources and a more sustainable city. However, in Greece’s case a small population is detrimental causing numerous vital disadvantages:

[1] The number of dependents per person of working age (the dependency ratio) is increasing as the percentage of the population ages. This increases the strain on the working population to provide healthcare and pensions. [2] [2] It is harder to maintain economic growth when the labor force becomes smaller since it lowers the nation's potential for production. Lower overall output, less innovation, and slower economic growth can result from a shortage of labor. It might also lead to a smaller pool of talent, which would cause skill shortages in important areas and significant structural unemployment. Raising salaries might also result from a shrinking labor pool as employers bid for the few available workers. Although workers may gain from this in the short run, firms may incur increased labor expenses as a result, which could result in higher pricing and decreased competitiveness. [3] A smaller population means a smaller domestic market for goods and services. This can limit the growth potential of businesses that rely on local consumers, leading to economic stagnation. [4] Foreign and domestic investors might be deterred by the prospect of a shrinking market and workforce, reducing capital inflows and slowing economic development. [5] As young people leave rural and isolated areas for urban centers or overseas in quest of better prospects, many of these areas become less populated. This results in the loss of services, the collapse of local economies, and the abandonment of agricultural land. Urban congestion can impose strain on housing, infrastructure, and services in places like Athens and Thessaloniki while rural areas see depopulation. [6] With a declining population, infrastructure like schools, hospitals, and public transport systems may become underutilized, leading to inefficiencies and increased costs per capita. A smaller population could also impact Greece's ability to maintain a robust defense and security posture, particularly in a region with complex geopolitical challenges.

Together these problems have to be dealt with and considered when thinking about the ideal population.

Overview:

It is evident from analysis of the case studies of Greece and India that there are inefficient resource allocation and welfare loss. In India's case, there is a shortage of resources while in Greece's case, there is an underallocation of resources and output produced. This proves as evidence, that population collapse and overpopulation can have detrimental effects on a country and no state is ‘better’ than the other. Both nations must implement policies if they are to achieve their full potential. We'll look at several ideas below that not just apply to Greece and India, but also to other countries that are having demographic issues and want to build sustainable cities.

Policies:

Establish systems to monitor demographic trends and adjust policies accordingly, ensuring that they remain relevant and effective.

Understanding one's country's demographics and the root causes of the issue is crucial before enacting any action. In Greece, national conflicts were brought on by austerity measures, while poor literacy rates were the source of conflict in India. The first step towards improving and meeting the demands and needs of the nation would be to set up a system that can track demographic trends and modify policy accordingly.

Advocating decentralized planning and execution of family planning, prioritizing local needs and vulnerable groups.

To ensure consistent access to family planning and sexual and reproductive health (FP-SRH) services across the country, policies and programs must address systemic gaps at the local level. These can be addressed by solving smaller issues within the country.

Adopting a Multi-Sectoral Strategy:

This committee should carry out a multisectoral strategy that covers family planning, maternal and child health and leave, education, employment, and socioeconomic development. These could include increased demand for early childhood education, and exploring developing adaptive curriculums that involve parents. This will help both countries who are susceptible to population collapse and overpopulation. Additionally, attempts should be made to bridge the gap between existing skill development initiatives and industry demands.

International Collaboration in Population Management:

Collaboration with international organizations such as the United Nations Demographic Division, the World Bank, and university institutions can provide access to global best practices, technical experience, and financing for demographic data collecting and research. Countries can look at different strategies adopted by nations to see which one is successful. For example, the One Child policy is deemed to have negative repercussions. This idea and policy can be avoided by India.

Conclusion:

The current demographic system is riddled with problems, whether it be high inequalities, inefficient allocation of resources, and financial risks. Government schemes have so far been successful in identifying the issues, but unsuccessful in taking action about the same. By putting more focus and emphasizing the importance of this issue, governments will have to take a closer look into their demographics and provide more plans to overcome their current situation. Establishing a new system, schemes, and plans will enforce a sustainable outlook for the future.